报告题目：Recent developments in the Norwegian Climate Prediction System
报告人：Prof. Noel Sebastian Keenlyside (University of Bergen)
时间：2026年11月10日（周二）下午2:00-3:30
地点：大气楼院史馆报告厅
报告摘要：
Climate prediction aims to close the gap between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate change projections. The field emerged in the 1980s with the first skilful predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Since then, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions have become operational at centres around the world, while multi-annual to decadal prediction has become an established field of research.
Despite these advances, major challenges to skilful climate prediction remain. In this presentation, I will discuss the work we are doing with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) to address these challenges. I will give an overview of the development of our soon-to-be-released NorCPM2. This will include exciting developments in the assimilation of soil moisture for the prediction of heat waves. I will also provide a summary of our work towards a hybrid version of NorESM that combines data-driven models with NorCPM using the supermodel framework.
报告人简介：
Dr. Noel Keenlyside is a professor in tropical meteorology at the university of Bergen. He is internationally recognized for his work in climate dynamics, modelling and prediction. He currently heads the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit and led the development of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. His interests extend to climate services and to the development of integrated Earth-Ecosystem Models. Keenlyside has coordinated large international and multi-disciplinary EU and Nordic projects. This includes the TRIATLAS project (https://triatlas.w.uib.no) where he led the development of the first Earth-System/Marine Ecosystem model predictions. He has received prestigious ERC Consolidator and the DFG Emmy Noether grants. He has served and chaired several WCRP CLIVAR panels, including the Atlantic Region Panel and the Climate Dynamics Panel, and on the recent Research FocusConfronting Earth System Model Trends and Multidecadal Variability with Observations. He serves on editorial boards for Advances in Atmospheric Science, NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, and SPJ Ocean Atmosphere Land Research journals.
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